So the February 2026 update dropped the biggest matchmaking change Brawl Stars has ever had. Trophies no longer decide who you play against. Instead, there's a hidden MMR running behind the scenes. Cool. One small problem though – Supercell hasn't told us what it actually tracks.
All we got was "overall performance and player experience." That's it. Very helpful, thanks Supercell.
So let's do what any reasonable person would do: look at how every other competitive game handles MMR and try to figure out what Brawl Stars might be doing under the hood.
Wait, What Even Is MMR?
MMR stands for Matchmaking Rating. It's a hidden number that represents how good the game thinks you are. Your trophies are what you see. Your MMR is what actually decides who you play against. Two players could have completely different trophy counts but similar MMR, and the game will happily throw them into the same match.
Almost every competitive game does this now. League of Legends, Valorant, Overwatch 2, Apex Legends, Fortnite – they all have a visible rank for you to feel good about and a hidden number doing the real work behind the scenes.
How Other Games Handle It
Here's the interesting part. Every game does MMR differently, and the differences tell you a lot about what that game values.
- -Overwatch 2 keeps it dead simple – only wins and losses affect your MMR. Blizzard explicitly said individual stats like damage and eliminations don't matter because they don't want players farming stats instead of playing the objective. Smart.
- -Valorant uses two components: "Encounter MMR" based on individual duels and "Win/Loss MMR" for match outcomes. At lower ranks, your individual performance matters more. At higher ranks, winning is basically all that counts.
- -Apex Legends factors in placement, kills, assists, and the strength of the opponents you beat. Kills later in a match are worth more than early ones.
- -Fortnite tracks survival time, eliminations, damage dealt, and even team support in duos and trios. Kills have diminishing returns after five though, so you can't just W-key your way to the top.
- -Clash Royale (Supercell's other big game) officially uses trophies for matchmaking but has a hidden skill rating running underneath. Supercell has never revealed how it works there either. Typical.
The Three Big Algorithms
Most competitive games use one of three rating systems under the hood:
- -Elo – The OG. Created for chess in the 1960s. Simple: beat someone rated higher than you, gain more points. Lose to someone lower, lose more. Clean, but designed for 1v1 games.
- -Glicko-2 – Elo's smarter cousin. Adds a confidence rating that goes up when you play regularly and drops when you take breaks. CS2 uses a version of this.
- -TrueSkill 2 – Microsoft's system, built specifically for team games. It can factor in kills, deaths, whether you're in a squad, even quitting behaviour. Predicts match outcomes with 68% accuracy. Riot is apparently moving League of Legends to this. It would honestly make the most sense for Brawl Stars too.
So What Could Brawl Stars Be Tracking?
Here's where we get into speculation territory. Based on what other games do and the little Supercell has told us, here's my best guess at what the hidden MMR might factor in:
- -Wins and losses – Obviously. Every MMR system starts here.
- -Kills per match – How many eliminations are you averaging? This is one of the clearest skill indicators in a game like Brawl Stars.
- -Deaths per match – Are you feeding? Dying five times in a Gem Grab match tells the system something very different than dying once.
- -How quickly you die – This is a big one. If you're consistently getting eliminated in the first 20 seconds, that's a massive red flag for the matchmaker.
- -Opponent strength – Beating players with higher MMR should boost yours more. This is standard across every system.
- -Win streaks – We already know the trophy system gives win streak bonuses up to Prestige 2. The MMR probably accelerates during streaks too to correct placement errors faster.
- -Damage dealt – Though this one is tricky. A Piper dealing 50k damage plays very differently from a Rosa dealing 50k damage. If Supercell is smart, they're normalising this by Brawler.
- -Star Player performance – Getting Star Player consistently is a pretty reliable signal of carrying your weight.
What It Probably Doesn't Track
Some things would be too easy to game or too hard to measure fairly:
- -Gems collected or balls scored – Too mode-specific and would encourage selfish play.
- -Healing done – Doesn't work for 90% of the roster.
- -Brawler choice – Picking a meta Brawler shouldn't inflate your MMR. Valorant explicitly confirmed agent selection doesn't affect rating, and I'd bet Brawl Stars does the same.
The Elephant in the Room: "Forced 50% Win Rate"
Let's address this now because it comes up every single time anyone mentions MMR anywhere. No, the game is not deliberately giving you unwinnable matches to keep you at 50%. A roughly 50% win rate is what naturally happens when you're matched against players at your skill level. That's literally the point. If you were winning 70% of your matches, you'd be climbing against harder and harder opponents until you settle at... around 50%.
It's not a conspiracy. It's just maths.
The Real Problem: Nobody Can See It
Here's the thing that actually frustrates me. If trophies don't determine matchmaking anymore, what even are trophies? Just a progression bar? A number to make you feel good? Because right now there's no way to verify that the matchmaker is working. Every time you get a terrible teammate, your brain goes "broken matchmaking" instead of "bad game" because you can't see the evidence that says otherwise.
Overwatch 2 got hammered for this exact thing. Valorant players constantly complain about it. The EA forums are full of posts titled "stop with the hidden MMR." It's the one thing that unites every competitive gaming community – nobody likes a number they can't see.
What I'd Love to See
Supercell, if you're reading this – and I know you're not – here's my wishlist:
- -Show us the MMR. Or at least show us a tier based on it. Dota 2 shows the actual number and their competitive scene is thriving. Transparency isn't scary.
- -Tell us what it tracks. You don't have to give us the exact formula. Just tell us if kills matter. If deaths matter. If objective play matters. Players will play better if they know what "better" means to the system.
- -Per-Brawler vs Account MMR. Is my MMR the same when I play my max Prestige Colt and my Power 1 Gus? Because it really shouldn't be.
The Bottom Line
The hidden MMR is almost certainly a good thing for match quality. Every major competitive game uses one, and matches should feel fairer once the system has enough data to place everyone correctly. But the complete lack of transparency is going to breed conspiracy theories and frustration – it always does.
For now, the best advice is simple: play well, don't die unnecessarily, get kills, win matches. Whatever the MMR is tracking, those things are almost certainly part of it.